Is there scientific evidence for pending water shortages in Greater Vernon in 2016?

Before we start a major water conservation project we should consider the scientific evidence for the need for it. As I stated earlier there are consequences of extreme water conservation: we pay more for less water as the budgetary obligation must be met.

Of course, if there is a major water shortage we must be prudent with the available water so every customer gets his/her basic needs. For that purpose Greater Vernon Water Utility developed a Drought Management Plan in 2011 with the help of a dedicated group of volunteers. The plan considers available empirical evidence before determines appropriate action. It uses a model such as the one below to decide the need for extreme conservation measures.

The current status of the Duteau Reservoir is demonstrated below:

There is no water shortage indicated  by the graph. In fact, if we observe long term empirical data relating to reservoir levels (below) we can see that in most years when the Duteau reservoir was full at the start of the irrigation season the reservoir was in good shape by the end of the season.

So, we can choose to conserve and get less water for more money, and perhaps run a deficit, or use our water judicially. We have a way oversized water system for which we had (and continue to have) to pay and we are already quite diligent in using water way below predicted volumes (an average of 53% below the predicted demands). Staff is so worried about reduced water consumption that they recommended extremely high base fees for which we get no water at all. This costs us all a lot of money without justification.

I have analyzed the water consumption of Coldstream customers for the first quarter of 2016. The average cost of 1 cubic meter of water was $4.30. Of this sum $3.10 (72%) was due to base fees. I am reasonably sure that if we also included Vernon customers this rate would be lower due to lower Industrial, Commercial and Institutional (ICI) rates.

This could be improved significantly if all domestic customers (including customers)  paid the same rates. However, the majority of RDNO Directors oppose the elimination of subsidized rates for ICI customers. They need your opinion on the issue so they could be pressured to represent your interests. If you disagree with ICI subsidies email, phone or write to your political representative and tell them how you feel.

You may decide to conserve water on principle and it is your prerogative. But that conserved water will not stay here: it will continue its travel to the sea and come back next year via air mail!

************************************************************************************************************

Water fears in focus

by Jon Manchester - Sep 21, 2015
Castanet

With a drought still gripping parts of B.C. and Washington, and concerns over the possibility of a costly mussel invasion, agencies on both sides of the border are coming together to talk.

The Okanagan Basin Water Board, Town of Osoyoos and the International Joint Commission are hosting the Osoyoos Lake Water Science Forum, Oct. 7-9 at the Sonora Centre.

“The drought, invasive species, making sure there is enough water for fish, are key issues we need to co-ordinate on with Washington state,” says water board executive director Anna Warwick Sears. “These three issues alone represent millions of dollars for our economies."

While the meeting is in Osoyoos, it relates to the entire Okanagan watershed, from Armstrong to the Columbia River, since the waters are all connected.

“We rarely have a chance to talk with our counterparts in the U.S., and this is an opportunity to meet with senior decision makers, and also hear from First Nations and grassroots – residents, farmers and business people – from both sides of the border," says Sears.

“It’s about building relationships and having a shared understanding of problems so when a crisis hits you can work through them effectively. With climate change and population growth, the management of water is going to be critical."

Osoyoos Mayor Sue McKortoff notes the lake that defines her community straddles the Canada-U.S. border. “We must look after our lake. It is the lifeblood of our community and we have to be vigilant in protecting it.”

The forum, which is open to the public, will discuss topics including drought, climate change, effects of forest fires on water, invasive mussels, milfoil and toxic blue-green algae blooms, which have been an issue in Osoyoos Lake in the past.

“The drought this year has had everyone sit up and take notice about not using water indiscriminately,” says McKortoff.  “We all have to start looking at water differently.”

The board is also sponsoring a one-day “Columbia River Treaty: Past, Present and Future” workshop Oct. 7 at the Sonora Centre. With the treaty up for renegotiation, and the Okanagan being a sub-basin of the Columbia, the workshop will include a review of the treaty’s history and purpose and discussion of future implications.

One more reason to consider Kalamalka and Okanagan Lakes for domestic water supply for security reasons! 

***********************************************************************************************************

Two view-points and the reality.

View-point 1

 

View-point 2 

Are we really short of water? (click)

Reality September 1, 2015 

*************************************************************************************

California's nightmare.

Click on photo.

Changing scenery. Is this the result of climate change or just a freak of nature? Scary!

******************************************************************************

Kelowna water utility finally adopts watering restrictions

July 29, 2015 - 9:00 PM

KELOWNA - There is still no compelling reason to introduce watering restrictions but the City of Kelowna water utility is doing it anyway.

“It’s based on supporting the provincial drought response, it's political, there is no technical reason,” Adrian Weaden says.

The water quality supervisor says the decision was made this week to heed the provincial government’s request that all water providers voluntarily reduce consumption by 30 per cent.

That request came in the face of the severe drought affecting the southern part of B.C. Many regions are experiencing level four drought conditions, including the Kamloops area, the Lower Mainland and all of Vancouver Island. Many Okanagan communities have already implemented some type of water restriction this summer.

The Okanagan region is experiencing level three drought conditions and Weaden says the main source of water for the city owned water utility is still in good shape.

“Okanagan Lake fluctuates almost a metre every year. You can characterize the lake level as being slightly below normal for this time of year. We are at about 13 centimetres above the drought years fo 2003 and 2009.”

Kelowna’s other four water providers, Rutland Water Works, Glenmore Ellison Improvement District, Black Mountain Irrigation District and South East Kelowna Irrigation District, are all already on stage one water restrictions and have been for some time.

Kelowna’s water utility is the only provider around Okanagan Lake that had no watering restrictions.

Stage one water restrictions begin Tuesday, Aug. 4 and is based on your house address. Properties ending in odd numbers water on calendar days ending in odd numbers and properties ending in even numbers water on even numbered days.

Automatic underground irrigation systems must be timed to run between midnight and 6 a.m. Manual sprinklers and hand watering must be done between 6 a.m. to 11 a.m. or 6 p.m. to midnight on the appointed day.

Weaden says initial enforcement of the restriction will be based on complaints to bylaw and that violators would be educated, not ticketed at first.

“It would take repeat violations to get a ticket at this point."

To contact the reporter for this story, email John McDonald at jmcdonald@infonews.ca or call 250-808-0143. To contact the editor, email mjones@infonews.ca or call 250-718-2724.

INFORMATION BULLETIN - Fishing closures part of comprehensive drought response

For Immediate Release

July 10, 2015
PENTICTON Responding to dry conditions, the Government of B.C. has announced a Level 3 drought rating for the South Thompson, Nicola, Similkameen, Okanagan-Kettle and Skagit regions, and taken the additional action of suspending angling in streams and rivers throughout the South Okanagan due to ongoing low stream flows and warming water temperatures.

Effective July 15 through Sept. 15, 2015, all streams and rivers in the Similkameen drainage as well as the Kettle and West Kettle Rivers, and all tributary streams in these areas will be closed to angling. The angling closure covers all streams in Wildlife Management Units 8-2 through 8-7 and 8-12 through 8-14. The closure has been put in place to protect fish stocks at a time when they are vulnerable due to low flows and high water temperatures. The geographic area covers most of the south Okanagan. Lake fishing is not affected by the order. (more information).

To access the 2015 Provincial Drought Management Plan click here.

************************************************************************************************************ 

Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin - May 15, 2015

Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin - May 15, 2015

The May 15th snow survey is now complete. Data from 27 snow courses and 49 snow pillows around the province and climate data from Environment Canada have been used to form the basis for the following report.
Click here for the Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin as a PDF file.
  Click here for the Basin Snow Water Index Map.
  Click here for the complete May 15, 2015 Snow Survey Data.

Weather
 
The first week in May saw a cold low pressure system move across British Columbia, bringing cooler temperatures and scattered precipitation. Into the second week of the month, a blocking high pressure ridge developed over northern BC and this pattern has largely persisted. This has brought extremely warm, summer-like temperatures across the northern portions of the province (20-25˚C) and warm conditions through other areas. Thunderstorms over the period have been the primary source of precipitation through the month, leading to sporadic and localized rain events.  Wide-spread rainfall has been limited in May.

Snow Pack
 
Warm weather through early May has led to rapid snow melt across the province. Most snow survey locations across the province experienced 50-200 mm of snow water equivalent loss over the May 1st to May 15th period. Current melt rates at snow pillows range from 5-25mm/day through most of the province, with some regions experiencing up to 30-40mm/day of melt.

May 15th snow basin indices have declined through most of the province since May 1st, and range from a low of 11% of normal in the South Coast and Vancouver Island, to a high of 122% of normal in the Nechako. May 15th snow basin indices have increased since May 1st in the Upper Fraser-East, Nechako, Lower Fraser, Upper Columbia, Boundary, and Central Coast.

Most regions of the province have extremely low May 15th snow basin indices (less than 49% of normal) (Figure 1). This includes the Middle Fraser, Lower Fraser, East Kootenay, Okanagan, Similkameen, South Coast, Vancouver Island and Peace. Below normal snow basin indices (50-79%) are present in the Boundary, South Thompson, West Kootenay and Stikine. Slightly below normal (80-89%) basin indices are present in the North Thompson, Upper Columbia, and Central Coast. Near normal (90-109%) snow basin indices are present in the Upper Fraser and Skeena-Nass basins. Above normal (>120%) snow pack conditions are present in the Nechako basin.

The average of all provincial snow water equivalent measurements for May 15th is 60% of average conditions. This is the lowest province-wide average for the May 15th bulletin in the past 31 years of record.

The extremely low snow pack this season is the result of warm winter and spring temperatures that have led to a higher than normal portion of the winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow and high rates of early season melt.

Table 1 - BC Snow Basin Indices – May 15, 2015

Basin	% of Normal	Basin	% of Normal
Upper Fraser West	No Data1	Boundary	70
Upper Fraser East	103	Similkameen	29
Nechako	122	South Coast	11
Middle Fraser	41	Vancouver Island	11
Lower Fraser	37	Central Coast	83
North Thompson	86	Skagit	No Data1
South Thompson	73	Peace	47
Upper Columbia	86	Skeena-Nass	91
West Kootenay	55	Stikine	70
East Kootenay	24	Liard	No Data1
Okanagan	41	Northwest	No Data1

1    Data is not available either because there were no scheduled snow surveys or no snow surveys were completed.

Streamflow Runoff
 
Many rivers across the province experienced much higher than normal streamflow over the late-winter and spring period. This was a result of increased runoff due to winter and spring precipitation as rain and rapid early season snow melt.

In some regions of the province, particularly where there is still significant high-elevation snow packs remaining, streamflows remain above normal as unseasonably hot temperatures have been driving rapid snow melt. In unregulated streams in the Nechako River basin, for example, flow rates are currently at 5-year to 50-year return period flow levels.

In the southern part of the province, particularly on Vancouver Island, the depletion of this seasons’ marginal snow pack has transitioned rivers to extremely low levels for this time of year. Flow conditions in mid-May this year are more similar to what is observed in July or August in an average year and is an early indication that there is a risk of extreme low flows this season if the region does not experience wetter than normal summer weather.
Snow packs are still sufficient across some regions of the province to provide on-going seasonal risk for flooding. This is the case for regions that typically experience peak levels later in the melt season, including the Fraser River and Thompson River.

Outlook
 
Current weather patterns are persistent, with a blocking ridge over northern British Columbia leading to limited flow of upper air and continued hot weather with some instability and thundershowers. This pattern is expected to continue through the weekend and into next week, with persistent above-normal temperatures. Current long-range temperature forecasts from Environment Canada indicate a high likelihood of above normal temperatures across British Columbia through the short (1 month) and long (3-month) terms.  Precipitation forecasts, which are less reliable than temperature, suggest normal precipitation over the next three months, with the exception of the eastern third of the province that may experience above normal precipitation.

Flooding is always possible during the snow melt freshet season, even in areas with normal or lower than normal snow packs. Given the snow conditions this year for most of the province, extreme weather, such as extreme precipitation or combined hot and wet weather, would be required to produce flooding or higher than expected flows in most areas of the province.  

In the Nechako and Bulkley Rivers, snow packs are nearing a point where flows on natural systems are expected to peak within the coming week. On the Nechako River near the confluence with the Fraser, the peak is expected to occur later as flows from the Stuart River are forecast to continue to rise. In the larger rivers of the province, warmer weather over the next 5-10 days is expected to continue the on-going rapid snow melt, and steady rises in river levels are expected.

With current weather conditions and outlook, the low flow season is expected to begin early this season. The extent of low flows will largely be affected by late-spring and summer temperature and precipitation. However, with the shift to earlier season low flows, there is the potential for very low summer flows in some regions unless wetter than normal summer weather occurs.

The River Forecast Centre will continue to monitor snow pack conditions and streamflow across the province and provide flood and low streamflow advisories as needed. Snow melt “Freshet” information, including stream flow mapping, is available at: http://bcrfc.env.gov.bc.ca/freshet/index.htm. The next Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin is scheduled for release on Monday, June 8th.

BC River Forecast Centre
May 21, 2015 

************************************************************************************************************

Drought-stricken Californians turfing their turf for cash - will it be better or worse?

"Francisco Sevillano and his four-man crew grab their hoes, machetes and pickaxes and start hacking. Soon, instead of water-guzzling grass, her front and back yards will sprout drought-tolerant plants. And she's hardly the first on her block. In some areas it looks like a bizarre election: Everywhere there are lawn signs bearing slogans like "I'm conserving water. Won't you join me?" In many neighbourhoods like Meloni's, brown is the new green."

"Some lawn replacements may actually create 'heat island'"

Read more and watch the video!

******************************************************************************************************** 

Should water supply be used to fetter growth?

Key Principle "e." states  that "Water supply would not be used to fetter growth. I assume the same principle was used in California when they believed that growth has no boundaries. California now is beginning to face the reality.

*********************************************************************** 

California Drought Emergency Declared By Governor Jerry Brown - Huffington Post.

SAN FRANCISCO -- California Gov. Jerry Brown spoke to reporters on Friday morning to declare a drought emergency for the state, which had its driest year in recorded history in 2013.

"Today I'm declaring a drought in the state of California," said Brown. "We're facing perhaps the worst drought California has ever seen since records began being kept about 100 years ago."

Brown's declaration was mostly symbolic. The governor called for a 20 percent voluntary reduction in water use for all citizens "in both rural areas and cities." However, "we're certainly holding out for mandatory conservation," he said.

"There's not a government program that can totally compensate for the lack of rain," he said. "Hopefully it will rain eventually, but in the meantime we all have to do our part."

Brown's decision comes after months of pressure from lawmakers to declare a drought. The official announcement could affect how California's water is distributed and provide the basis for setting formal guidelines for farmers, businesses and residents to cut back.

The governor presented a graph showing the year's dismal precipitation, as well as photos comparing the Sierra Nevada snowpack today versus one year ago. 

The culprit of the drought is a massive high-pressure zone off the West Coast that has been blocking Pacific storms for over a year. Eleven states including Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Kansas, Texas, Utah, Arkansas, Hawaii, Idaho, Oklahoma and California have already been designated primary natural disaster areas by federal inspectors due to the drought. 

At a press conference earlier this week, Brown signaled the announcement would be coming.

"It's coming within the next few days," he said. "But don't think that a letter from the governor's office is going to affect the rain."

See more photos.

There is something to think about when developing our final Master Water Plan. Placing such a heavy reliance on the unpredictable Duteau source for our future water supply could be risky! Okanagan Lake is the most reliable source and we have not thoroughly investigated it for long term supply.

*******************************************************************************

Duteau Creek water supply report - Latest report on Duteau reservoir (June 23, 2010)

Here are the June 23rd Duteau water storage volumes. Water storage volumes continue to rise and we are 97% of full. This is due to the rainfall recorded for the previous two months or so. These rains have reduced the demand, and more importantly filled the reservoirs.

In consideration of the above we are going to Stage 1 water restrictions. A press release will be issued today, and advertisement in Sunday’s paper reflecting the change.

Al Cotsworth, P.Eng

Manager, Greater Vernon Water
Regional District of North Okanagan
9848 Aberdeen Road
Coldstream, B.C. V1B 2K9
Office 250 550 3700
Fax 250 550 3701

***********************************************************

Duteau Creek water supply report -- Update, June 14, 2010

Conditions continue to improve at the Duteau Creek reservoir.

****************************************************

Duteau Creek water supply report - Latest report on Duteau reservoir (June 9, 2010)

For comparison the May 29 reservoir level is also included. Stage 2 restrictions continue to apply until reservoir level is settled. Kalamalka Lake is also getting higher as well as that of Okanagan Lake. In fact, Okanagan Lake is now higher than it was last year.

Attached graph below illustrates typical distribution of total water use in the Okanagan.

Contrary to expectation nearly all reservoirs south of Vernon are full as depicted below.

******************************************************

Duteau Creek water supply report.

Above is the latest information on the Duteau Creek Reservoir levels. The news is bad, we are way below previously recorded lows. Even worse, most of the snow has already melted and unless we have major rain events there is not much chance of the reservoir filling up this year.

The upper lake levels are indicators of water supply for the Valley bottom lakes, such as Kalamalka and Okanagan Lakes. As the water is used up from Kalamalka Lake there is no reserves coming to replace it. Thus, disregard calls for eliminating stage 3 restrictions; we all must save as much water as possible until resupply potentials improve.

*********************************************************

Summer drought possible for parts of B.C., environment minister warns -- Vancouver Sun

Environment Minister Barry Penner warned Friday of possible drought for parts of British Columbia this summer.

Penner said below average snowpacks across the province could mean streams will be running much lower than normal by the summer months.

"With the exception of high-elevation areas on Vancouver Island and the South Coast, snowpacks across B.C. are all below normal," said a statement released by the government Friday.

"The low snowpack and smaller-than-normal snowmelt run-off are likely to be reflected in lower-than-normal lake and reservoir levels, lower-than-normal recharge of groundwater aquifers and lower-than-normal river levels during summer," it added.

The statement said that much of the Southern Interior is classified at drought level three, meaning low stream flows and water supply shortages are "highly probable" unless significant rainfall occurs during May and June.

The statement said local governments in these areas should consider water restrictions and review drought management plans.

Much of the Central and Northern Interior are classified at drought level two, the statement said.

These areas have early indications of summer water supply shortages, it said, adding that the province is only calling for voluntary water conservation in these areas.

In an interview, Penner said southwest areas of the province like the Lower Mainland and Whistler are not facing such dramatic shortages.

He added that the province is developing a drought response plan for the coming summer.

"We are running what I would describe as a water deficit and that has been a couple of years in the making for many parts of the province," he said.

"Our goal is to reduce any impacts on communities, residents, farmers, and fish and wildlife."

jfowlie@vancouversun.com
© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

****************************************************************

Some important issues from Wednesday's NORD meeting.

Two important issues surfaced at Wednesday's NORD meeting: the status of the Duteau Creek reservoir and the progress of the Duteau Creek water treatment plan.

Staff reported that reservoir levels are at an all time low: as of April 19 water volume in the Duteau Creek reservoir was 2,500 acre feet (about 3,100,000 cubic meters). Previous low registered at 4,700 acre feet (about 5.8 million cu. meter). The situation is desperate at present. So, prepare your plants for the bad news. Stage three watering restriction are likely to proceed immediately and a number of drought emergency measures will be instituted.

Reporting on the Duteau Creek treatment plant we are told that it is about 80% complete and appears to be within budget. The bad news is: it is three months behind schedule. So far $22.3 million were paid out to the contractor.

********************************************************