Demographics of Coldstream/Vernon….How it fits in.

Demography is simply the study of population and how it changes over time. Its components are birth, death, migration and aging. The renowned Canadian demographer David Foot (author of the best seller Boom, Bust and Echo) claims that demography explains two-thirds of everything. The other one-third might come from misguided political leadership and other unpredictable events.

Coldstream and Vernons’ population distribution mirrors both Canada’s and B.C.’s demography, but with much greater growth in the retirement/senior population. The median age (half of the population younger, and half older ) is 44.3 years for Coldstream and 44.8 years for Vernon. This is what the median population of B.C. is expected to be by the early 2020s (Canada Census 2006). We are an older community and getting older; the median age in the year 2031 is projected to be 47.4 years for Vernon.

Since 1999/2000 there has zero to negative net natural increase in population (more deaths than births in Vernon). All population growth to the year 2031 will be driven by net migration.

The actual age distribution over time reveals the following percentages for Vernon;

Census 2001

Less than 25 years old.... 30%
25 – 44 years ...................26%
55 years and greater .......31%
65 years and greater .......17%

Census 2006

Less than 25 years old... 28.2%
25 – 44 years ..................22.3%
55 years and greater.......33.6%
65 years and greater.......19.9%

Census projection 20031

Less than 25 years old....23%
25 – 44 years..................23%
55 years and greater.......38%
65 years and greater.......26%

Note that the 2031 projection was done without the benefit of the 2006 Census data (ie. used only 2001 data and historical growth rates)

The growth of the “over 55 years group” as a percentage of total population may actually be higher than the 38% projected by 2031 , if the rate of growth between 2001 and 2006 is sustained. The “25 – 44 years” group has already fallen below the 30 year projection, in a mere 5 years.

As for the age group that dominates organized sport and puts the greatest pressure on sport field use, one has to look no further than the BCTF to establish school enrolment projections:

“Full time-equivalent student enrolments have declined steadily since 2001/2002 and are expected to do so until the school-age population in B.C. begins to increase at about 2015. The most recent-published population projections (B.C. Stats, February 2007) indicate that by 2031, the school age population will have returned to 2000/2001 levels, the highest in the almost 40 year period between 1970 and 2007.”
So given the establishment of the adequacy of sport fields in Vernon and Coldstream to present need (see Blog Archive….Some Additional Info from Denice Berlinski), one can easily conclude that these existing fields will be somewhat underutilized for the next decade and will easily satisfy “community need” for the next 30 years, until school populations revive.

Additionally, as the school district continues to be impacted by enrolment shortfalls, and hence revenue shortfalls, some sharing of fields and costs with GVS may prove attractive for the likes of football and track needs as well as gymnasiums etc.

Data Sources

BCTF Research Report Section IV 2007-50-1
Population and Housing Profile and Projection for the City Of Vernon, 2001-2031: Dec 2006
B.C. Stats 2006 Census Profile Vernon
B.C. Stats 2006 Census Profile Coldstream

Greg Ockert

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